I thought I would start the year with a few thoughts on what could happen in 2019. While I view this as a fun exercise, I leave it up to you to assess just how far-fetched the below “thoughts” really are.
As practitioners active since 2014 in venture capital investing, we are beginning to see a definite change of attitude on the part of our HNW clients toward venture capital. This does not surprise us. In fact, investors, especially those who are professionally advised, appear to know we are presently in the middle of a transition whereby central banks are gradually raising interest rates (FED), or already mapping out their exit strategy (ECB).
The relative outperformance of the US stock market is cited as evidence that the trade war is being won. While this type of narrative may be politically useful in the runup to the November mid-term elections, I believe it misses the point completely.
There is an eerie quiet in the equity markets of developed countries. Yet there is no shortage of reasons to be worried. Amid the bombast surrounding the tariff confrontations, sanctions, cold and hot wars, QE tapering and general hubris, the world hardly seems like a tranquil place.
“I don’t do it for money. I’ve got enough, more than I’ll ever need. I do it to do it. Deals are my art form. Other people paint beautifully…or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals.”.
On May 5th, 2018 small groups of Marxists and academics gathered to celebrate the two hundredth anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth.
Protectionism is based on the naive idea that the wealth of a nation depends on how much more it sells to the rest of the world relative to what it buys.
Stubbornly low inflation in the presence of unprecedented monetary stimulus has been the source of considerable debate.
When it comes to investing in China’s equity market we have become accustomed to a narrative centred on GDP growth. But at this stage in China’s evolution it is important to note that the (permanent) decline in China’s economic growth is a perfectly normal development.
“There is no such thing as a free lunch” - Milton Friedman (Economist, 1912-2006)1