Forecast 1: “The year 2021 will be the year when inflation will rear its head with a vengeance. It is not just the increase in commodity prices (including oil), but the beginning of the rise in costs associated with the reorganisation of the global value chain, which in our view seems to be under-appreciated…”
During the first quarter of 2021 the dollar rose by 4.14% while gold fell by 10.53%. Nothing unusual here since gold has traditionally been a good hedge against the dollar and, additionally, since gold is much more volatile than the dollar you need a small gold allocation, relative to your dollar exposure, to protect yourself against adverse dollar movements.
The pandemic, which started after we published our forecasts last year, muddled the waters to the point where even when we turned out to be right, we were right for the wrong reasons. In any event, here’s how things worked out.
On November 15th, 2020, 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).